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 potential outcome distribution


Preference-based Conditional Treatment Effects and Policy Learning

Parnas, Dovid, Even, Mathieu, Josse, Julie, Shalit, Uri

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce a new preference-based framework for conditional treatment effect estimation and policy learning, built on the Conditional Preference-based Treatment Effect (CPTE). CPTE requires only that outcomes be ranked under a preference rule, unlocking flexible modeling of heterogeneous effects with multivariate, ordinal, or preference-driven outcomes. This unifies applications such as conditional probability of necessity and sufficiency, conditional Win Ratio, and Generalized Pairwise Comparisons. Despite the intrinsic non-identifiability of comparison-based estimands, CPTE provides interpretable targets and delivers new identifiability conditions for previous unidentifiable estimands. We present estimation strategies via matching, quantile, and distributional regression, and further design efficient influence-function estimators to correct plug-in bias and maximize policy value. Synthetic and semi-synthetic experiments demonstrate clear performance gains and practical impact.


Testing for Causal Fairness

Fu, Jiarun, Ding, LiZhong, Li, Pengqi, Wei, Qiuning, Cheng, Yurong, Chen, Xu

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causality is widely used in fairness analysis to prevent discrimination on sensitive attributes, such as genders in career recruitment and races in crime prediction. However, the current data-based Potential Outcomes Framework (POF) often leads to untrustworthy fairness analysis results when handling high-dimensional data. To address this, we introduce a distribution-based POF that transform fairness analysis into Distributional Closeness Testing (DCT) by intervening on sensitive attributes. We define counterfactual closeness fairness as the null hypothesis of DCT, where a sensitive attribute is considered fair if its factual and counterfactual potential outcome distributions are sufficiently close. We introduce the Norm-Adaptive Maximum Mean Discrepancy Treatment Effect (N-TE) as a statistic for measuring distributional closeness and apply DCT using the empirical estimator of NTE, referred to Counterfactual Fairness-CLOseness Testing ($\textrm{CF-CLOT}$). To ensure the trustworthiness of testing results, we establish the testing consistency of N-TE through rigorous theoretical analysis. $\textrm{CF-CLOT}$ demonstrates sensitivity in fairness analysis through the flexibility of the closeness parameter $\epsilon$. Unfair sensitive attributes have been successfully tested by $\textrm{CF-CLOT}$ in extensive experiments across various real-world scenarios, which validate the consistency of the testing.


The Causal Impact of Credit Lines on Spending Distributions

Li, Yijun, Leung, Cheuk Hang, Sun, Xiangqian, Wang, Chaoqun, Huang, Yiyan, Yan, Xing, Wu, Qi, Wang, Dongdong, Huang, Zhixiang

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Consumer credit services offered by e-commerce platforms provide customers with convenient loan access during shopping and have the potential to stimulate sales. To understand the causal impact of credit lines on spending, previous studies have employed causal estimators, based on direct regression (DR), inverse propensity weighting (IPW), and double machine learning (DML) to estimate the treatment effect. However, these estimators do not consider the notion that an individual's spending can be understood and represented as a distribution, which captures the range and pattern of amounts spent across different orders. By disregarding the outcome as a distribution, valuable insights embedded within the outcome distribution might be overlooked. This paper develops a distribution-valued estimator framework that extends existing real-valued DR-, IPW-, and DML-based estimators to distribution-valued estimators within Rubin's causal framework. We establish their consistency and apply them to a real dataset from a large e-commerce platform. Our findings reveal that credit lines positively influence spending across all quantiles; however, as credit lines increase, consumers allocate more to luxuries (higher quantiles) than necessities (lower quantiles).


Estimating Potential Outcome Distributions with Collaborating Causal Networks

Zhou, Tianhui, Carlson, David

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many causal inference approaches have focused on identifying an individual's outcome change due to a potential treatment, or the individual treatment effect (ITE), from observational studies. Rather than only estimating the ITE, we propose Collaborating Causal Networks (CCN) to estimate the full potential outcome distributions. This modification facilitates estimating the utility of each treatment and allows for individual variation in utility functions (e.g., variability in risk tolerance). We show that CCN learns distributions that asymptotically capture the correct potential outcome distributions under standard causal inference assumptions. Furthermore, we develop a new adjustment approach that is empirically effective in alleviating sample imbalance between treatment groups in observational studies. We evaluate CCN by extensive empirical experiments and demonstrate improved distribution estimates compared to existing Bayesian and Generative Adversarial Network-based methods. Additionally, CCN empirically improves decisions over a variety of utility functions.